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PCE inflation is still hot enough to warrant another rate hike in May – Wells Fargo

PCE inflation
PCE inflation Chart

The US economy has been on a roller coaster ride over the past few years, with the COVID-19 pandemic causing massive disruptions to businesses and individuals alike. In response, the Federal Reserve has taken an unprecedented level of action to keep the economy afloat, including slashing interest rates to historic lows and buying up trillions of dollars in assets. However, with the economy now showing signs of recovery and inflation on the rise, many experts are beginning to question whether the Fed’s policies are still appropriate.

According to the latest data from Wells Fargo, the Personal Consumption Expenditures PCE inflation rate in the US has risen to 2.3% year-on-year in February, up from 1.5% in January. This is significantly above the Fed’s target rate of 2%, and suggests that inflationary pressures are continuing to build in the economy.

As a result, Wells Fargo economists are now predicting that the Fed will raise interest rates again in May, following on from its first rate hike in December 2022. This would be a significant shift in policy, as the Fed has maintained a near-zero interest rate policy for the past several years in an attempt to stimulate economic growth and prevent a deflationary spiral.

However, while the PCE inflation rate is certainly cause for concern, there are other factors at play that could complicate the Fed’s decision-making process. For example, the labor market is still recovering from the pandemic, with many people still out of work or underemployed. Additionally, there are concerns about the impact of rising interest rates on the housing market, which has been a key driver of economic growth in recent years.

Ultimately, the decision on whether or not to raise interest rates in May will depend on a complex set of economic and political factors. While inflation is certainly an important consideration, it is not the only one, and the Fed will need to carefully weigh the potential benefits and risks of any policy changes.

Regardless of the outcome, however, it is clear that the US economy is still in a state of flux, and that there are many challenges ahead. As businesses and individuals continue to adapt to the post-pandemic world, it will be important for policymakers to remain flexible and responsive, in order to ensure that the economy remains on a stable and sustainable footing.

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